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Google CEO:五年内互联网会发生什么

Google CEO Eric Schmidt(埃里克·施密特) 在Gartner Symposium/ITxpo Orlando 2009 会议上说到了未来五年内互联网的变化。虽然这只是一个预测,但很有参考价值。

关于互联网的发展内容如下:

  1. Five years from now the internet will be dominated by Chinese-language content.
  2. Today’s teenagers are the model of how the web will work in five years – they jump from app to app to app seamlessly.
  3. Five years is a factor of ten in Moore’s Law, meaning that computers will be capable of far more by that time than they are today.
  4. Within five years there will be broadband well above 100MB in performance – and distribution distinctions between TV, radio and the web will go away.
  5. “We’re starting to make signifigant money off of Youtube”, content will move towards more video.
  6. “Real time information is just as valuable as all the other information, we want it included in our search results.”
  7. There are many companies beyond Twitter and Facebook doing real time.
  8. “We can index real-time info now – but how do we rank it?”
  9. It’s because of this fundamental shift towards user-generated information that people will listen more to other people than to traditional sources. Learning how to rank that “is the great challenge of the age.” Schmidt believes Google can solve that problem.

翻译成中文的意思为:

  1. 五年内中文信息将主导互联网。
  2. 现在的青年将是五年后互联网的决定因素,他们会不断的去尝试新的互联网应用。
  3. 按照摩尔定律(摩尔定律是指IC上可容纳的晶体管数目,约每隔18个月增加一倍,性能也将提升一倍。),互联网在五年内会有巨大变化。
  4. 五年内个人网络带宽将会100MB,网络将会和电视及电台一样迅速。
  5. 内容将越来越多的倾向于通过视频传播,Youtube也将会赚钱。
  6. 实时信息将和原有的信息一样重要,Google将会将实时信息出现在搜索结果里。
  7. 除了twitter和Facebook外还会有很多提供实时服务的公司。
  8. Google现在已经能索引实时信息,但是还没有将实时信息进行排名的技术。
  9. 用户更加信赖来自他人的“用户产生信息”,而不是通过传统渠道获取信息。Schmidt 相信Google可以解决实时信息排名问题。

针对上面 所说的Google已经有了动作。如Google的百宝箱主要就是提供实时搜索服务的,而Google最新推出的对任何网站进行评论的服务(Google Sidewiki)。

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